In 2020, China’s GDP grew by 2.3%, following a V-shaped scenario, drawn by the epidemic-related drop at the beginning of the year. The vigorous recovery as much of the planet is struggling. The big heavyweights, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, show promising growth as long as the small ones, Tibet, Guizhou, and Yunnan, have the best rates.
Guangdong and Jiangsu in the lead
The figures are out at the regional level, with Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces still showing the best GDPs, followed by Shandong, Zhejiang, and Henan. Guangdong – 11,076 billion yuan/$1,715 billion – has a GDP twice that of Henan (5th), and its growth of 226 billion yuan in 2020 is more than three times that of Henan, 737 billion. (Data for Hebei is not yet available).
GDP by province :
Fujian, with a growth of 3.3%, has overtaken Hubei, which declined by 5.5%.
Anhui follows Shanghai (3868 – 3870) and is expected to overtake the city in 2021. In 2019, the difference reached 104 billion. It has shrunk to 2 billion.
Two out of three provinces in the Northeast are falling back in the ranking. With a growth of 0.6%, Liaoning is overtaken by a “weak” province in the South, Jiangxi; Heilongjiang, with +1%, is down one place.
Chongqing, the 4th city, managed directly by the State since 1997, continues to advance with 3.9% growth and is approaching the middle of the table of provinces.
The Northwest and Xian
The decline of the Northeast is measured with the advance of the Northwest. The flagship province of the latter, Shaanxi 陕西, capital Xian 西安, had in 1978 a GDP that represented 35.37% of that of the first province of the North-East, Liaoning. Over the years, the gap has narrowed; in 2018, Shaanxi was ahead of Liaoning. Xinjiang overtakes Heilongjiang, as does Gansu in the West and Jilin. The performance of the West is led by Xian, which radiates. At the same time, the major cities of the Northeast (Dalian, Shenyang, Changchun, Harbin) do not manage to develop such a positive influence.
Per capita, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu
It is interesting to process these data by calculating the GDP per capita. Beijing and Shanghai are in the lead, with the capital having an advantage with 167,610 yuan (27,960 USD) per person, compared to 159,660 for its rival. Of course, population figures are “moving,” and the ranking can be affected. Jiangsu follows we had already seen that its capital had the first place in this ranking for the cities see here. The North-South difference is still visible but less accentuated. We find the weak provinces of the South in the last ten places (Jiangxi, Guizhou, Guangxi).
GDP per capita :
If we establish a ranking by growth, we realize that Tibet, which has the lowest GNP and the smallest population (3.35 million), has the best growth, 7.80%, followed by two southern provinces, Guizhou (4.5%) and Yunnan (4%), which do not “weigh heavy”. The heavyweight, Guangdong, is in line with the national average (2.3%). As for Beijing (1.2%) and Shanghai (1.7%), they underperform. Restrictions related to the health crisis, which are stricter than in other regions, certainly played a role.
Growth by province :
NB: In response to specific comments received that evoke the reliability of Chinese figures and the interest of taking them into account: as much as it is not easy to know if they accurately reflect reality, it is difficult to prove that they are false. On the other hand, one can think that these data reflect the trend. For this year, the V-shaped scenario of the economy is credible. On the other hand, as some connoisseurs believe, whether growth is not positive over the whole year or whether the economy has plunged more in the first few months, I wouldn’t be shocked if these assumptions are closer to reality.
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9 february 2021