China, railway, the winners, the losers

China continues to grow at a rapid pace while the US administration is mired in electoral constraints. The Chinese Ministry of Railways has unveiled the objectives for the next fifteen years:
1) By 2035, cities with more than 200,000 inhabitants will be connected to railways and those with more than 500,000 to high-speed trains. 2. 200,000 km of network, of which 70,000 km will be high-speed.
Currently, the high speed network is 36,000 km long, i.e., more than 60% of the world network. Of the 670 Chinese cities, 72.4% have more than 500,000 inhabitants, and 91.6% have more than 200,000. From 2022 onwards, construction will expand towards the center and west. Who wins? Who loses?

The winners

The development of the train is a considerable element for the development of a city.
Provincial capitals and “clusters” of cities, which also have better public facilities and services, have benefited most from this infrastructure development in recent years. They attract the most people, especially the Beijing-Shanghai-Canton and Shenzhen cluster, followed by the capital cities. The cities, which have the largest population increase between 2016 and 2019, are located in the Pearl Delta, the Yangtze Delta, and in the center of the country, the six main cities. In general, it is the deployment of the TGV rails that have greatly favored this expansion.
Shaanxi province is the big winner.
Wuhan Municipality likes to present itself as a very central city in China with many geo-economic strengths. The lines, starting from the Hubei capital, go to nine provinces.

.high speed train in china

The losers

The regions close to these cities are also reaping the benefits. For example, Foshan benefits from the advantages of Canton. On the other hand, the small towns – of the 3rd and 4th category, far from these clusters of cities, do not benefit from the rays of prosperity and the virtuous circle: their growth slows down, the real estate market falls, tourists come less easily. Low prices do not attract people, as in Hegang (鹤岗), an isolated city close to Siberia in Heilongjiang province.

The research bureau G Trend believes that these small, isolated, and already forgotten towns will suffer. Even more, it’s even a death sentence, while the big cities, which are even more connected, can celebrate the victory.

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24 August 2020

Posted on Categories Economy

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