Trying to understand China with the voice of the Chinese also means going through voices outside China, be it in New York, Hong Kong or Taipei. Ming Juzheng, 明居正, is a professor of political science at the National Taiwan University. He regularly gives his analysis on current hot spots. In a short column, he sets out his ideas on the message and content to be conveyed by the authorities during these two assemblies.
The President’s message
Xi Jinping will indicate that the epidemic is under control, the economy is returning to a normal state, we can regain confidence and bring foreign investors back.
Weight of the People’s Assembly and the Consultative Conference
The People’s Assembly resembles an assembly of deputies from other countries, but due to the dictatorship of one party, it is just a vase of flowers. It has no real power, no political power, no control and no appointment of leaders even though the authorities want to give it the appearance of a place of democracy, and the consultative conference, according to the professor, is only the vase of the vase. It focuses more on foreign affairs, which includes Hong Kong and Taiwan.
The interest for observers
If they’re just recording chambers, why listen to them? The various reports will discuss past results and future goals in the short and long term. They will give an idea of future events.
Three important battles have been fought in recent years
Limiting the risks in the financial system, the government has put a lot of energy into this, we won’t talk about it much.
Lifting the entire population out of poverty; this year, it will not be possible, but we will say it is a given.
Pollution control. If the economy has to get back on its feet, it is still a gamble lost in advance, but it will be said to have been won.
The professor’s 11 points
- 1. The famous “Six stabilities, six guarantees, 六稳, 六保” is a central point.Stability of employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, investment, forecasting and guarantees, employment for the population, welfare, the market, energy and food security, the supply chain and supply.
- 2. The Wuhan epidemic. In the abstract, one should praise the people and health care workers of Wuhan. China will be presented as a victim （受害者, who becomes the saviour of the world (救世主). The speeches will take advantage of this to make self-satisfaction about the victorious struggle under the aegis of the communist party.
- 3. Production and economy. The market cannot rely on consumption; the emphasis will still have to be put on construction and infrastructure, mainly real estate and high-speed trains.
- 4. Finance, debt. The floodgates of credit must be opened even more.
- 5. The survival of SMEs.
- 6. Unemployment and employment. Ming recalls the problem of counting the unemployed; we don’t count the peasants and migrants who come to work in the cities. There should be at least 120 million out of a working population of 800 million. 8.74 million students will graduate from universities, what should be done with them?
- 7. Cereals. The supply problem is significant, and could get worse. China needs to obtain supplies abroad, in the United States as elsewhere; the trend is upward.
- 8. Prices and inflation.
- 9. Foreign relations. The current tensions should be avoided, especially claims due to the epidemic part of Wuhan. Chinese aid to the world will be recalled.
- 10. The problem of Hong Kong, we should emphasize the responsibility for foreign interference and the involvement of thugs.
- 11. The Taiwan problem. We will certainly attack Tsai Yingwen, American support and independence.
Are these sessions going to bring any surprises? A hardening of tone toward interference outside China?
21 May 2020